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Image of the quote is loading... SaveSave ...the ratings agencies' problem was in being unable or uninterested in appreciating the distinction between risk and uncertainty. - Quote by Nate Silver

…the ratings agencies’ problem was in being unable or uninterested in appreciating the distinction between risk and uncertainty.

Nate Silver
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Distinguishing the signal from the noise requires both scientific knowledge and self-knowledge: the serenity to accept the things we cannot predict, the courage to predict the things we can, and the wisdom to know the difference.
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In science, progress is possible. In fact, if one believes in Bayes' theorem, scientific progress is inevitable as predictions are made and as beliefs are tested and refined.
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Under Bayes' theorem, no theory is perfect. Rather, it is a work in progress, always subject to further refinement and testing.
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Who needs theory when you have so much information? But this is categorically the wrong attitude to take toward forecasting, especially in a field like economics where the data is so noisy.
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